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Microsoft is Finally Dying | |
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Originally written 20051023 It is finally starting. The events I predicted are happening, but almost 2 years later than I expected. The major events are: 1. Open Document Format (ODF) is officially recognized by a standards body. 2. OpenOffice.org 2.0 is being released. 3. A major institution will enforce a strict "No Microsoft Word proprietary format documents allowed" policy. I did not think #1 was a newsworthy event, except the timing seems to have kickstarted the other two events. I have no idea why OpenOffice.org 2.0 was delayed. I expected it in February 2004. Everything I read in 2003 suggested that date. Then it disappeared from the tech news until now. Maybe they were waiting for the other events, and using the time to make the product as worthy a replacement for MSWord as possible. There were upgrades in the 1.x series, but the features promised for 2.0 are necessary for it to become ubiquitous. I am also (pleasantly) surprised by the third event. I assumed some big corporation like GM or Ford would notice the savings from discarding MS software. Microsoft's license fees are a minor part of this savings, as large corporations get deep discounts on their volume purchases. The human resource savings from not needing to reboot are offset the extra electricity costs from having the computers run for months without being turned off. The retraining is minor; most other software deliberately feels like MS software for easy transitions. But the opportunity costs saved by not catching one software virus epidemic would make the migration worthwhile. But none of the large corporations has announced they will only accept documents in an open format. Instead: The shot around the world has finished its journey. (My apologies for the misquote. There has been more activism for freedom from Microsoft's tyranny outside the USA than here. It seems appropriate that the current battle for freedom starts in the USA in Massachusetts.) Massachusetts has announced that all government documents must be in documented standard open known formats. The Commonwealth of Massachusetts has determined that the common wealth cannot be common if it is stored in a format that can only be correctly and fully used with software available from only one company. Now the avalanche will start. 1. All public officials must use an approved open format for public documents. 2. They learn to use software that can work with the open formats. 3. They eventually discard proprietary software that cannot work with the open formats. 4. They require all documents (not just public records) to be in the open format. 5. Everybody who sends them documents must use an approved open format for their documents. 6. Go to #2. Soon: 1. All proposals and contracts must be in an ODF file. 2. Anybody applying for a job will be required to send their resume as an ODF file. 3. Everybody in Massachusetts will use software that can read and write ODF files. 4. Everybody sending documents to anybody in Massachusetts will use software that can read and write ODF files. 5. Anybody sending documents to anybody will use software that can read and write ODF files. This happened before in the early 1990s. Everybody switched from WordStar, WordPro, WordPerfect and other software to MSWord because the MSWord proprietary file format became the de facto standard. Only a few industries (lawyers, newspapers, and other paper-based industries) were able to justify using non-compliant file formats because MSWord lacked features necessary to their business. The general public will not tolerate requiring multiple software products for a single task. That is why many people emailed MSWord documents rather than write directly in their email program until the pain of launching two programs outweighed the pain of learning a new writing program. The ability to easily reply to received emails also pushed learning to use new software. Microsoft has two options to survive in the new world: 1. Convince Massachusetts to surrender. That is difficult because the rest of the software industry is actively supporting this effort. Microsoft is trying its best to protect its file formats while pretending the formats are open, and the rest of the software industry is keeping Massachusetts aware of the reality. 2. Support ODF in the next release of MSWord. Microsoft would generate immediate profits if everybody was forced to upgrade to their next release. They have not had such a recognizably important feature added to an upgrade since Windows95 was released. But many people upgrading are aware there is alternative software available for free, and may balk at the cost of continuing to use MSWord. Reporting those profits could push the stock price over $30 for the first time in 3 years, but loss of their monopoly based on proprietary file formats will officially start the decline of Microsoft. [My date for the start of the decline was the release of WindowsXP. Windows98SE is more useful and secure than WindowsXP, and none of their other product upgrades since WindowsXP's release has had any recognizably worthwhile additions to the functionality. That date marks when Microsoft lost the ability to market their product upgrades and started depending on computer replacements and population growth for sales.] If you are not already using OpenOffice.org as your "Office Productivity Suite" (fancy name for packaging word processing and spreadsheet software together), now would be a good time to learn it because your employment will depend on using it in a few years. You can download it at http://www.openoffice.org.
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